Exeter No Flying Club Why we must stop flying

Why we must stop flying if we are to stop climate change: On 28th February 2006 George Monbiot wrote in the Guardian under the heading "We are killers until we stop flying". Already, one fifth of all the world’s international air passengers fly to or from an airport in the UK. The numbers have risen five-fold in the past 30 years, and the government envisages that they will more than double by 2030, to 476 million a year. Perhaps "envisages" is the wrong word. By providing the capacity, the government ensures that the growth takes place. As far as climate change is concerned, this is an utter, unparalleled disaster. Flying kills. We all know it, and we all do it. And we won’t stop doing it until the government reverses its policy and starts closing the runways. On 23rd July 2006 the Bishop of London, Richard Chartres, said that it was a sin to fly: Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin. Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes. It is living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions. It is easy to dismiss these remarks, because they seem at first to be ludicrous attempts to undermine the status quo, and go far beyond what we might see as reasonable. Yes, reduce flying, but give it up completely? That seems too extreme. That’s what I thought. Until I did the maths. Now I’m convinced, WE DO NEED TO STOP FLYING ALTOGETHER. Full stop. The maths: Firstly, if air travel increases it’s emissions according to current trends and government policy, then between 2007 and 2030 emissions will double from approximately 100 million tonnes per annum to just over 200 million tonnes per annum (these figures include the "radiative forcing" multiplier of 2.7, and take into account a 30% improvement in air travel efficiency). At the same time our total domestic emissions must drop by 90% over the same period. Currently annual UK emissions are just over 700 million tonnes, This must drop to about 70 million tonnes. This will be a difficult task, but it is necessary if we are to contribute to keeping global temperatures below the 2 degree increase above pre-industrial temperatures. Scientists tell us unanimously that this is the crucial barrier which, if we break, could lead to runaway climate change. You can see from the graph below that emissions from air travel are currently 15% of the total. But this will reach 50% of our carbon target in 2019 (Only 12 years away). But more crucially air travel emissions will take up the whole UK carbon budget by 2026. Clearly this is a ridiculously unsustainable picture. We obviously have to reduce air travel quite drastically starting today. We cannot wait until 2019 to start realising there might be a problem. But this is not an argument to stop flying altogether, surely. Well, perhaps not. But wait, it might be easier to look at the numbers not from the point of view of a whole nation, but from the point of view of individual people with their own carbon budgets. More maths: Each person in the UK emits approximately 5.4 tonnes of CO2. This is about half of all UK emissions. The other half is emitted by business, commerce and government organisations. Within the 5.4 tonne budget, we need to heat and light our homes, run electrical equipment an travel to work, shops, and leisure activities. The budget includes flying. For each individual this is about a 1.8 tonnes of CO2 emissions devoted to flying. This is equivalent to a return journey to Greece. But by 2030 our personal budget will reduce from 5.4 tonnes to about 550 kgs. If our government implements carbon rationing (as indeed they must) then by 2030, we will all know exactly what we need to do to keep within our annual 550 kilogramme limit. Let us assume that we allocate the same proportion of our 2030 budget to air travel. That’s 100 kgs. If we save up our carbon rations for 10 years we could travel to Spain. If we saved up our rations for 60 years, we could have our "once in a lifetime" trip to Thailand. But the reality is that the 100kgs air travel ration will be seen as a luxury that we will probably have to forgo in order to heat and light our home, and travel to work, and a few other essentials such as food. Lets just look at our daily commute, which on average is 8.7 miles (14 km). If we make that journey by the most efficient vehicle today; (the Toyota Prius), and we car share with someone else, then that would result in about 300 kgs per year. If we went by bus or train it would only be a little bit less. That’s just over half our budget, and that’s just to get to work. We still have to budget another 250kgs to provide for any utility bills. And we also have to get to the shops, and buy food. Even with 50% of our electricity coming from renewable sources, it will be a real challenge to keep within our 550kgs ration. A typical personal carbon budget might be: - House heating (180 kgs) - Household electricity (50 kgs) - Car travel (300 kgs) - Other travel (20 kgs) - Air Travel (0 kgs) - (Food and other consumption is included in the business budget) Within this context do you think anyone is going to blow a whole 100kgs of precious CO2 credits on a luxury Thailand holiday that can’t be repeated for another 60 years, while they save up more carbon ration coupons? I think not. Conclusion: I believe I have made a convincing case to demonstrate that we need to give up flying altogether. I can’t think of any well reasoned argument that would enable us to continue flying. Except possibly hydrogen-powered planes. But that is 20 or 30 years in the future. We have a climate change problem right now. Perhaps you can justify flying. Please let me know how. But don’t forget that carbon offsetting your flight will simply not work (it is a con), and despite many predictions, air travel will only be about 30% more efficient by 2030.

Latest Update: March 2009

Web page updated by Maurice Spurway